Typically, treatment is assigned in a nonadaptive manner, where assignments are determined before any outcomes are observed.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward passes used to estimate predictive moments. We construct coupled coarse--fine estimators by reusing dropout masks across fidelities, yielding telescoping MLMC estimators for both predictive means and predictive variances that remain unbiased for the corresponding dropout-induced quantities while reducing sampling variance at fixed evaluation budget. We derive explicit bias, variance and effective cost expressions, together with sample-allocation rules across levels. Numerical experiments on forward and inverse PINNs--Uzawa benchmarks confirm the predicted variance rates and demonstrate efficiency gains over single-level MC-dropout at matched cost.

The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based nonparametric statistic for two-sample testing, whose inferential accuracy depends critically on variance characterization. Existing work provides various finite-sample estimators of the MMD variance, often differing under the null and alternative hypotheses and across balanced or imbalanced sampling schemes. In this paper, we study the variance of the MMD statistic through its U-statistic representation and Hoeffding decomposition, and establish a unified finite-sample characterization covering different hypotheses and sample configurations. Building on this analysis, we propose an exact acceleration method for the univariate case under the Laplacian kernel, which reduces the overall computational complexity from $\mathcal O(n^2)$ to $\mathcal O(n \log n)$.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) is a prominent technique for certifying the robustness of neural networks against adversarial perturbations. With RS, achieving high accuracy at small radii requires a small noise variance, while achieving high accuracy at large radii requires a large noise variance. However, the global noise variance used in the standard RS formulation leads to a fundamental limitation: there exists no global noise variance that simultaneously achieves strong performance at both small and large radii. To break through the global variance limitation, we propose a dual RS framework which enables input-dependent noise variances. To achieve that, we first prove that RS remains valid with input-dependent noise variances, provided the variance is locally constant around each input. Building on this result, we introduce two components which form our dual RS framework: (i) a variance estimator first predicts an optimal noise variance for each input, (ii) this estimated variance is then used by a standard RS classifier. The variance estimator is independently smoothed via RS to ensure local constancy, enabling flexible design. We also introduce training strategies to iteratively optimize the two components. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 show that our dual RS method provides strong performance for both small and large radii-unattainable with global noise variance-while incurring only a 60% computational overhead at inference. Moreover, it consistently outperforms prior input-dependent noise approaches across most radii, with particularly large gains at radii 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0, achieving relative improvements of 19%, 24%, and 21%, respectively. On ImageNet, dual RS remains effective across all radii. Additionally, the dual RS framework naturally provides a routing perspective for certified robustness, improving the accuracy-robustness trade-off with off-the-shelf expert RS models.

We develop an empirical likelihood (EL) framework for random forests and related ensemble methods, providing a likelihood-based approach to quantify their statistical uncertainty. Exploiting the incomplete $U$-statistic structure inherent in ensemble predictions, we construct an EL statistic that is asymptotically chi-squared when subsampling induced by incompleteness is not overly sparse. Under sparser subsampling regimes, the EL statistic tends to over-cover due to loss of pivotality; we therefore propose a modified EL that restores pivotality through a simple adjustment. Our method retains key properties of EL while remaining computationally efficient. Theory for honest random forests and simulations demonstrate that modified EL achieves accurate coverage and practical reliability relative to existing inference methods.

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under sequentially adaptive treatment assignment mechanisms. In contrast to classical completely randomized designs, we consider a setting in which the probability of assigning treatment to each experimental unit may depend on prior assignments and observed outcomes. Within the potential outcomes framework, we propose and analyze two natural estimators for the ATE: the inverse propensity weighted (IPW) estimator and an augmented IPW (AIPW) estimator. The cornerstone of our analysis is the concept of design stability, which requires that as the number of units grows, either the assignment probabilities converge, or sample averages of the inverse propensity scores and of the inverse complement propensity scores converge in probability to fixed, non-random limits. Our main results establish central limit theorems for both the IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability and provide explicit expressions for their asymptotic variances. We further propose estimators for these variances, enabling the construction of asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical results in the context of Wei's adaptive coin design and Efron's biased coin design, highlighting the applicability of the proposed methods to sequential experimentation with adaptive randomization.

We prove ratio-consistency of the jackknife variance estimator, and certain variants, for a broad class of generalized U-statistics whose variance is asymptotically dominated by their Hájek projection, with the classical fixed-order case recovered as a special instance. This Hájek projection dominance condition unifies and generalizes several criteria in the existing literature, placing the simple nonparametric jackknife on the same footing as the infinitesimal jackknife in the generalized setting. As an illustration, we apply our result to the two-scale distributional nearest-neighbor regression estimator, obtaining consistent variance estimates under substantially weaker conditions than previously required.